Arguments

Where reasonable people split.

The strongest cases on both sides of the debates about AI, work, debt, war, trade, energy and institutional power.

The question

AI supercycle or capex bubble?

Case A · Supercycle

Compute becomes productive infrastructure; falling intelligence costs unlock demand across every industry.

Case B · Bubble risk

Financing, depreciation and circular deals can outrun cash flow before applications mature.

What to listen for

Track realized revenue per unit of compute, not model capability alone.