Can the U.S. build defense capacity fast enough?
Can new procurement and production models deliver affordable capability at the speed modern conflict requires?
What’s at stake
The defense-production problem is not just inventing a better weapon. New firms must finance development, build repeatable manufacturing and sell into a market dominated by government purchasing. The recurring reform argument connects the incentives in a contract to the industrial capacity available when it is needed.
The ideas that connect
Buy an outcome without prescribing every design choice
Michael’s procurement proposal asks suppliers to solve a defined operational problem with fewer detailed specifications. Saronic’s preference for fixed prices addresses the other half of the incentive: a firm should gain from delivering efficiently rather than from accumulating costs. Neither approach eliminates technical risk. Both try to leave suppliers room to improve the product while making delivery matter commercially.
Supporting passages
2026-03-06
I need a bunch of missiles that go 500 miles or more that have this blast. Come to me with solutions, as little requirements as possible on that side. And on the contract piece, trying to get to as close to commercial contracts as possible. And this is where the startups are so good. They'll do fixed cost pricing. They'll do, you know, you don't pay me as much if I deliver late, you pay me more if I deliver early.
It's very disruptive to the existing system, yeah?
Super disruptive, but that's what I'm, I am like waking up every day trying to do.
Open the source and seek to the timestamp above.
2026-08-05
But if it costs a billion dollars, then as a company, I make $150 million. So there's this perverse incentive to drive up costs. Now, that's not the only reason the industry is where it is today, but we're very encouraged by the push from the administration to adopt things at speed and scale, and to do that quickly, and to do that differently, and to move away from cost plus. You had it. We invest our own capital. Today, we're just about four years old. We've raised $2.5 billion in private capital. We're pouring that into R&D. I remember when we decided to build Marauder, again, 180-foot ship, Viv and I were talking, it's like, who's crazy enough to go and build a ship on IRAD? And it's like, well, well, we are, because that's what the country needs.
Open the source and seek to the timestamp above.
Independent development requires patient capital
Anduril and Saronic describe funding products before selling them to government. That can create alternatives to specification-led contracting, but it moves substantial risk onto the company and its investors. A promising prototype is not yet a production business. The availability of capital, the scale of the factory and confidence in eventual orders determine how many new competitors can survive.
Supporting passages
2026-04-06
So they're not really investing a whole lot forward of the capability. Anduril, on the other hand, we're doing all of this as private R&D investment, and then we're selling the outcome, the output of that as a product. So this is fundamentally a different business model. But I do think that there's a tremendous amount of capital that's required to pull this off as a new entrant to the space. I don't think that the market is going to support a hundred new primes or something like that. I'm hopeful that it's not just Anduril. I think it would be healthy if there was more competition in the space. But, you know, being able to raise that amount of capital, hire the people that you need to actually pull it off, this is not, it's not like building a normal tech company.
Open the source and seek to the timestamp above.
2026-08-05
But if it costs a billion dollars, then as a company, I make $150 million. So there's this perverse incentive to drive up costs. Now, that's not the only reason the industry is where it is today, but we're very encouraged by the push from the administration to adopt things at speed and scale, and to do that quickly, and to do that differently, and to move away from cost plus. You had it. We invest our own capital. Today, we're just about four years old. We've raised $2.5 billion in private capital. We're pouring that into R&D. I remember when we decided to build Marauder, again, 180-foot ship, Viv and I were talking, it's like, who's crazy enough to go and build a ship on IRAD? And it's like, well, well, we are, because that's what the country needs.
Open the source and seek to the timestamp above.
Repeated demand keeps the production system alive
Treating drones and munitions as consumables creates a different cycle from buying a stockpile and leaving it on a shelf. Exercises and replenishment can sustain production and introduce newer designs. That demand signal complements fixed-price contracting: industry needs both incentives to deliver efficiently and a reason to keep investing in capacity after the first order.
Supporting passages
2026-04-06
My view is they're actually taking a lot of actions. Not all of them have come to see the day of light here, but even something as simple as reimagining munitions and drones as consumables. They're not things that you build and then stock on a shelf. They're things that you, at the time of ordering them, you already have an exercise test plan where you plan to expend them, which means that you're going to have to replenish them, which means there's a demand signal to industry to keep going. And a buying cycle that means that you can buy the next generation rather than having the old generation. And I think this department sees that in a very clear-eyed way and is doing the yeoman's work of like stitching that through, through all the services, all the portfolio acquisition executives, to the point of not believing in process, they've moved from a world where you have a very rigid, hey, I said I was going to buy X of Y and I can't change my mind to a world where there's more autonomy and authority for the people who are buying things to say, I told you I was going to buy something that accomplished this goal.
Open the source and seek to the timestamp above.
2026-03-06
I need a bunch of missiles that go 500 miles or more that have this blast. Come to me with solutions, as little requirements as possible on that side. And on the contract piece, trying to get to as close to commercial contracts as possible. And this is where the startups are so good. They'll do fixed cost pricing. They'll do, you know, you don't pay me as much if I deliver late, you pay me more if I deliver early.
It's very disruptive to the existing system, yeah?
Super disruptive, but that's what I'm, I am like waking up every day trying to do.
Open the source and seek to the timestamp above.
What remains unresolved
Do new purchasing rules lead to faster delivery, repeat orders and more usable capacity? Capital raised and prototypes demonstrated are inputs, not the final industrial outcome.
A selected guide · September 2025–September 4, 2026 · Sources and method