{ "asOf": "2026-09-02", "scope": "A reviewed set of attributable calls from annual prediction shows and regular episodes with a stated horizon and a concrete finish line.", "statistics": { "total": 53, "resolved": 21, "correct": 7, "wrong": 14, "pending": 32, "currentRegular": 28 }, "sourceKinds": { "annual": 17, "regular": 36 }, "speakers": [ { "speaker": "Brad Gerstner", "total": 1, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "total": 6, "resolved": 3, "correct": 0, "wrong": 3 }, { "speaker": "David Friedberg", "total": 6, "resolved": 5, "correct": 3, "wrong": 2 }, { "speaker": "David Sacks", "total": 9, "resolved": 4, "correct": 1, "wrong": 3 }, { "speaker": "Dino Mavroukis", "total": 1, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Gavin Baker", "total": 2, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Howard Lutnick", "total": 1, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "total": 18, "resolved": 9, "correct": 3, "wrong": 6 }, { "speaker": "Kyle Samani", "total": 1, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Michael Kratsios", "total": 4, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Nate Silver", "total": 3, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 }, { "speaker": "Will Marshall", "total": 1, "resolved": 0, "correct": 0, "wrong": 0 } ], "predictions": [ { "id": "2026-social-security-state-crisis-2032", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Friedberg", "category": "Economy", "claim": "A Social Security funding crisis and state fiscal failures will force bailouts or restructuring around 2030 to 2032.", "test": "By December 31, 2032, check whether Social Security requires a legislated solvency rescue and whether at least one US state receives an extraordinary federal bailout or formally restructures obligations.", "deadline": "2032-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The stated window begins in 2030.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000786595474", "episodeTitle": "Nvidia's Historic Quarter, SaaS Comeback, Bessent vs Druck, America's Debt Crisis, Cancer Vaccine", "publishedAt": "2026-08-29", "timestamp": "51:19", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000786595474", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-us-boots-moon-2028", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Michael Kratsios", "category": "Space", "claim": "American astronauts will return to the Moon in 2028.", "test": "Confirm that US astronauts land on the lunar surface by December 31, 2028.", "deadline": "2028-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was presented as an administration target.", "callType": "commitment", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000785633747", "episodeTitle": "Michael Kratsios: Trump's Science Agenda, Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China", "publishedAt": "2026-08-24", "timestamp": "22:51", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000785633747", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-space-nuclear-reactor-2028", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Michael Kratsios", "category": "Space and energy", "claim": "The United States will place a nuclear reactor in space by 2028.", "test": "Confirm that a US-led nuclear fission reactor reaches space and begins its intended demonstration or operating mission by December 31, 2028.", "deadline": "2028-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was presented as an administration target.", "callType": "commitment", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000785633747", "episodeTitle": "Michael Kratsios: Trump's Science Agenda, Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China", "publishedAt": "2026-08-24", "timestamp": "22:51", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000785633747", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-moon-base-elements-2030", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Michael Kratsios", "category": "Space", "claim": "The first elements of a US Moon base will be in place by 2030.", "test": "Confirm that hardware explicitly intended as part of a sustained US lunar base is delivered to and operating on the Moon by December 31, 2030.", "deadline": "2030-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was presented as an administration target.", "callType": "commitment", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000785633747", "episodeTitle": "Michael Kratsios: Trump's Science Agenda, Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China", "publishedAt": "2026-08-24", "timestamp": "22:51", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000785633747", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-scientific-quantum-computer-2028", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Michael Kratsios", "category": "Quantum computing", "claim": "The US national quantum initiative will create a scientifically relevant quantum computer by 2028.", "test": "Confirm that the program publicly demonstrates a quantum computer that performs a scientifically useful calculation beyond a classical baseline by December 31, 2028.", "deadline": "2028-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was presented as a federal program goal.", "callType": "commitment", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000785633747", "episodeTitle": "Michael Kratsios: Trump's Science Agenda, Anti-Science Claims, Fauci's Damage, DEI & China", "publishedAt": "2026-08-24", "timestamp": "22:51", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000785633747", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-anthropic-2027-exit-arr-sacks", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "AI and business", "claim": "Anthropic will exit 2027 at $400 billion to $500 billion in annual recurring revenue.", "test": "Use Anthropic's reported or credibly documented annualized revenue run rate for December 2027.", "deadline": "2028-01-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The forecast concerns Anthropic's exit run rate for 2027.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000783368405", "episodeTitle": "Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14", "timestamp": "51:47", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000783368405", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-anthropic-below-trillion-2027", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and business", "claim": "Anthropic will remain below $1 trillion in annual revenue during 2027.", "test": "Use Anthropic's reported or credibly documented full-year revenue and December 2027 annualized run rate; both must remain below $1 trillion.", "deadline": "2028-01-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Calacanis expected growth to slow sharply in 2027.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000783368405", "episodeTitle": "Anthropic's $2T IPO, Zuck's AI Manifesto, Nvidia's $500B AI Bet, Grok's Comeback", "publishedAt": "2026-08-14", "timestamp": "23:17", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000783368405", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-google-leads-consumer-ai-usage", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and products", "claim": "Google will be the number one AI company by consumer usage in 2026.", "test": "Compare year-end monthly consumer reach across public AI products and AI-enabled consumer services, using a consistent third-party audience measurement source.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The comparison will use the same audience measurement method across companies at year end.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000780992629", "episodeTitle": "Google's AI Brain Drain, SpaceX's Huge Quarter, Airtable's 90% Collapse, US Data Fuels China AI", "publishedAt": "2026-08-08", "timestamp": "12:32", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000780992629", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-saronic-ten-thousand-jobs", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Dino Mavroukis", "category": "Defense and industry", "claim": "Saronic's Port Alpha project will create 10,000 jobs over ten years.", "test": "Use company and government employment reporting to determine whether the project supports at least 10,000 direct jobs by August 5, 2036.", "deadline": "2036-08-05", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was presented as a company commitment tied to the shipyard project.", "callType": "commitment", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000780158954", "episodeTitle": "Saronic Founders: Autonomous Warships, China's 230X Advantage & Swarms of Robot Ships", "publishedAt": "2026-08-05", "timestamp": "37:48", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000780158954", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-openai-ipo-2027", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Markets", "claim": "OpenAI will complete an IPO in 2027.", "test": "Confirm that OpenAI lists shares through a conventional initial public offering by December 31, 2027.", "deadline": "2027-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The call was made while discussing prediction-market odds for a 2026 listing.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000779342609", "episodeTitle": "Chip Stocks Crash, $20B Fund Margin Called, Frontier Labs: SLOW DOWN AI, Mamdani's Grocery Stores", "publishedAt": "2026-07-31", "timestamp": "59:10", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000779342609", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-democrats-win-house", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Nate Silver", "category": "Politics", "claim": "Democrats will win control of the US House in the 2026 midterms, with an estimated 85% to 90% chance.", "test": "Use certified 2026 House election results to determine which party controls a majority of seats.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Silver described the House forecast as the clearer of the two congressional calls.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000774729674", "episodeTitle": "Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028", "publishedAt": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": "49:56", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000774729674", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-republicans-retain-senate", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Nate Silver", "category": "Politics", "claim": "Republicans have a slight edge to retain control of the US Senate in the 2026 midterms.", "test": "Use certified 2026 Senate election results to determine which party controls a majority of seats.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Silver put Democratic control near 40% to 45% and gave the GOP a slight edge.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000774729674", "episodeTitle": "Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028", "publishedAt": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": "52:30", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000774729674", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-democrat-wins-presidency-2028-silver", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Nate Silver", "category": "Politics", "claim": "A Democrat is the slight favorite to win the 2028 US presidential election.", "test": "Use the certified winner of the 2028 presidential election.", "deadline": "2028-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was a directional forecast, not a named-candidate prediction.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000774729674", "episodeTitle": "Nate Silver Predicts: Democrats Take the House, Newsom Is Fading & AOC Might Win It All in 2028", "publishedAt": "2026-06-29", "timestamp": "29:23", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000774729674", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-dram-share-hyperscaler-capex", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Gavin Baker", "category": "AI infrastructure", "claim": "DRAM will account for 30% to 40% of hyperscaler capital spending in 2027.", "test": "Estimate 2027 DRAM purchases by major hyperscalers from supplier reporting and divide by their combined reported capital expenditure.", "deadline": "2028-03-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Full-year company filings and memory-supplier reporting will be needed.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000774412562", "episodeTitle": "Socialists Sweep NYC, China Catches Up in Coding, AI Memory Crunch, Micron's Blowout Quarter", "publishedAt": "2026-06-26", "timestamp": "1:03:35", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000774412562", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-geodnet-revenue-triples", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Kyle Samani", "category": "Crypto and infrastructure", "claim": "Geodnet's annualized revenue run rate will more than triple within 12 months.", "test": "Compare the stated $11 million run rate with Geodnet's verifiable annualized network revenue on June 12, 2027; success requires more than $33 million.", "deadline": "2027-06-12", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The source turn states both the starting run rate and the growth threshold.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000772297193", "episodeTitle": "All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live", "publishedAt": "2026-06-12", "timestamp": "40:19", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000772297193", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-majority-compute-in-space", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Will Marshall", "category": "Space and AI", "claim": "Most new compute capacity will be deployed in space within ten years.", "test": "Compare new orbital and terrestrial compute capacity deployed during the year ending June 6, 2036; orbital capacity must exceed 50% of the total.", "deadline": "2036-06-06", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Marshall tied the forecast to falling launch costs and continuous solar power.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000771463858", "episodeTitle": "The IPO Comeback: Why Tech Giants Are Finally Going Public | All-In Liquidity IPO Panel", "publishedAt": "2026-06-06", "timestamp": "14:26", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000771463858", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-ai-arr-two-to-four-hundred-billion", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Gavin Baker", "category": "AI and business", "claim": "The major AI model and application companies will collectively reach $200 billion to $400 billion in annual recurring revenue by the end of 2026.", "test": "Sum year-end annualized revenue for OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Cursor, xAI, and the commercial open-model businesses named in the source discussion.", "deadline": "2027-01-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The range was stated for the named AI providers as a group.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000769153288", "episodeTitle": "SpaceX's $2T Case, Nvidia's Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?", "publishedAt": "2026-05-22", "timestamp": "4:34", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000769153288", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-spacex-revenue-forty-billion-2027", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "category": "Space and business", "claim": "SpaceX will generate approximately $40 billion to $45 billion in revenue in 2027.", "test": "Use SpaceX's reported full-year 2027 revenue, allowing the stated $40 billion to $45 billion range.", "deadline": "2028-03-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The forecast followed an estimate of $25 billion to $30 billion for 2026.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000769153288", "episodeTitle": "SpaceX's $2T Case, Nvidia's Shock Selloff, America Turns on AI, Trump Pulls AI Order, Bond Crisis?", "publishedAt": "2026-05-22", "timestamp": "59:50", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000769153288", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-tesla-spacex-merger", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "category": "Business", "claim": "Tesla and SpaceX will merge by the middle of 2027.", "test": "Confirm that a binding transaction combining Tesla and SpaceX closes by June 30, 2027.", "deadline": "2027-06-30", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Palihapitiya gave the end of 2026 as the primary timing and mid-2027 as the outer bound.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000766858188", "episodeTitle": "Elon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, \"FDA for AI\" Panic, Trading the AI Boom", "publishedAt": "2026-05-08", "timestamp": "24:12", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000766858188", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-anthropic-hundred-billion-arr", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "AI and business", "claim": "Anthropic will exit 2026 at approximately $100 billion in annual recurring revenue.", "test": "Use Anthropic's reported or credibly documented annualized revenue run rate for December 2026.", "deadline": "2027-01-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Sacks described the target as a continuation of Anthropic's 10x annual growth.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000766858188", "episodeTitle": "Elon's Anthropic Deal, The Next AI Monopoly?, \"FDA for AI\" Panic, Trading the AI Boom", "publishedAt": "2026-05-08", "timestamp": "14:09", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000766858188", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-frontier-models-cyber-capability", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "AI and security", "claim": "Within six months, all frontier AI models will match Anthropic Mythos-level cyber capability.", "test": "By November 1, 2026, check whether the leading frontier-model providers have each publicly demonstrated an end-to-end multi-step cyber-attack simulation at or above the Mythos capability discussed in the episode.", "deadline": "2026-11-01", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The source tied the comparison to AI Security Institute cyber simulations.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000765670693", "episodeTitle": "OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze", "publishedAt": "2026-05-01", "timestamp": "19:45", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000765670693", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-trillion-ai-buildout", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI infrastructure", "claim": "AI and cloud capital spending will reach $1 trillion over the following year.", "test": "Sum reported capital expenditure from Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, OpenAI, xAI, and the other large AI infrastructure builders for the 12 months ending May 1, 2027.", "deadline": "2027-06-30", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The episode cited $725 billion of 2026 guidance from four hyperscalers before adding other builders.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000765670693", "episodeTitle": "OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze", "publishedAt": "2026-05-01", "timestamp": "41:00", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000765670693", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-xai-cursor-coding-leaderboard", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and products", "claim": "The xAI and Cursor collaboration will put one of its models in the top three of a major public coding leaderboard within 12 months.", "test": "By April 24, 2027, check whether a jointly developed xAI or Cursor model reaches the top three on the public coding leaderboard referenced in the episode or its direct successor.", "deadline": "2027-04-24", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The top-three rule makes the phrase front of the leaderboard testable.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000763493355", "episodeTitle": "SpaceX-Cursor Deal, SaaS Debt Bomb, New Apple CEO, SPLC Indictment, Colon Cancer Spike", "publishedAt": "2026-04-24", "timestamp": "4:44", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000763493355", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-anthropic-eighty-to-hundred-billion-gerstner", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Brad Gerstner", "category": "AI and business", "claim": "Anthropic will exit 2026 at $80 billion to $100 billion in annualized revenue.", "test": "Use Anthropic's reported or credibly documented annualized revenue run rate for December 2026.", "deadline": "2027-01-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This independent April call preceded Sacks's approximately $100 billion forecast in May.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000760748945", "episodeTitle": "Anthropic's $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence", "publishedAt": "2026-04-10", "timestamp": "44:13", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000760748945", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-nvidia-2027-revenue-free-cash-flow", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI infrastructure", "claim": "Nvidia will exceed $350 billion in revenue and generate $200 billion in free cash flow in 2027.", "test": "Use Nvidia's fiscal-year reporting that covers most of calendar 2027; both thresholds must be met.", "deadline": "2028-04-30", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Both the revenue and free-cash-flow conditions must hold.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000756188610", "episodeTitle": "Jensen Huang LIVE: Nvidia's Future, Physical AI, Rise of the Agent, Inference Explosion, AI PR Crisis", "publishedAt": "2026-03-19", "timestamp": "9:27", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000756188610", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-democrats-sweep-midterms-calacanis", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Politics", "claim": "Democrats will win both the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms.", "test": "Use certified 2026 congressional election results; Democrats must control both chambers.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. The call was made in the context of the Iran war and Trump's approval rating.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000755144717", "episodeTitle": "Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare", "publishedAt": "2026-03-13", "timestamp": "15:18", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000755144717", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-democrat-wins-presidency-2028-calacanis", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Politics", "claim": "A Democrat will win the 2028 US presidential election.", "test": "Use the certified winner of the 2028 presidential election.", "deadline": "2028-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. This was paired with the prediction of a Democratic midterm sweep.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000755144717", "episodeTitle": "Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare", "publishedAt": "2026-03-13", "timestamp": "15:18", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000755144717", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-us-gdp-four-percent-lutnick", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Howard Lutnick", "category": "Economy", "claim": "US real GDP growth will reach 4% by the end of 2026.", "test": "Use the Bureau of Economic Analysis estimate for real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 or full-year 2026, matching the speaker's end-of-year framing.", "deadline": "2027-03-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. Final fourth-quarter and annual GDP estimates arrive after year end.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744378120", "episodeTitle": "Howard Lutnick: How America Can Hit 6% GDP Growth in 2026", "publishedAt": "2026-01-09", "timestamp": "1:03:15", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744378120", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2025-treasury-yields-year-end", "year": 2025, "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "category": "Economy", "claim": "The 10-year Treasury yield will exceed 5% and the 30-year yield will exceed 6.25% by the end of 2025.", "test": "Compare both Treasury par yields on the final published trading day of 2025 with the stated thresholds.", "deadline": "2025-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2025-12-31", "outcome": "The 10-year Treasury yield ended 2025 at 4.18% and the 30-year at 4.84%. Neither threshold was reached at year end.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000709672237", "episodeTitle": "Bond crisis looming? GOP abandons DOGE, Google disrupts Search with AI, OpenAI buys Jony Ive's IO", "publishedAt": "2025-05-24", "timestamp": "8:17", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000709672237", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "US Treasury daily yield curve rates", "url": "https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?field_tdr_date_value_month=202512&type=daily_treasury_yield_curve" } ] }, { "id": "2024-trump-ev-position", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Politics and mobility", "claim": "Donald Trump will publicly shift toward supporting electric vehicles within 30 days.", "test": "Look for a clear public statement of support for electric vehicles by July 7, 2024.", "deadline": "2024-07-07", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2024-07-07", "outcome": "No qualifying statement appeared by the deadline. Trump later said he was for electric cars at an August 3 rally, making the directional call right but the 30-day timing wrong.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000658205142", "episodeTitle": "DOJ targets Nvidia, Meme stock comeback, Trump fundraiser in SF, Apple/OpenAI, Texas stock market", "publishedAt": "2024-06-07", "timestamp": "30:55", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000658205142", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "AP review of Trump's EV statements", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/d58758e990f13482e0c6e3a79150abbe" } ] }, { "id": "2024-biden-replaced-on-ticket", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Politics", "claim": "Democrats will replace Joe Biden as their presidential candidate within 30 to 60 days.", "test": "Check whether Biden ends his reelection campaign between June 30 and July 30, 2024.", "deadline": "2024-07-30", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2024-07-21", "outcome": "Biden ended his reelection campaign on July 21, 2024, 51 days after the episode and inside the predicted window.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000657460552", "episodeTitle": "Trump verdict, COVID Cover-up, Crypto Corner, Salesforce drops 20%, AI correction?", "publishedAt": "2024-05-31", "timestamp": "13:53", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000657460552", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Biden withdrawal letter and report", "url": "https://www.axios.com/2024/07/21/biden-letter-drops-out-endorses-kamala-harris" } ] }, { "id": "2024-google-ai-overviews-rollout", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and products", "claim": "Google AI Overviews will roll out broadly to most users by the end of 2024.", "test": "Use a rollout beyond the initial US launch to more than 100 countries as the concrete threshold for broad availability.", "deadline": "2024-12-31", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2024-10-28", "outcome": "Google expanded AI Overviews to more than 100 countries in October 2024, meeting the broad-rollout test before year end.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000655961281", "episodeTitle": "GPT-4o launches, Glue demo, Ohalo breakthrough, Druck's Argentina bet, did Google kill Perplexity?", "publishedAt": "2024-05-17", "timestamp": "1:22:21", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000655961281", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Google AI Overviews expansion", "url": "https://blog.google/products-and-platforms/products/search/ai-overviews-search-october-2024/" } ] }, { "id": "2022-twitter-lower-price", "year": 2022, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Business", "claim": "Elon Musk will acquire Twitter by the end of 2022 after lowering his offer.", "test": "Check whether the acquisition closes during 2022 at a price below the original $54.20 per share offer.", "deadline": "2022-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2022-10-27", "outcome": "Musk completed the acquisition in October 2022, but Twitter shareholders received the original $54.20 per share. The closing date was right and the lower-price condition was wrong.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000557756268", "episodeTitle": "E76: Elon vs. Twitter", "publishedAt": "2022-04-16", "timestamp": "55:26", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000557756268", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Twitter shareholder approval at $54.20", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1418091/000119312522244289/d403306dex991.htm" }, { "label": "SEC account of the completed acquisition", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/file/comp26219" } ] }, { "id": "2022-sf-school-board-recall", "year": 2021, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "Politics", "claim": "At least two of the three San Francisco school-board members facing recall will be removed in February 2022.", "test": "Use the certified February 15, 2022 recall results for the three named board seats.", "deadline": "2022-02-15", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2022-02-15", "outcome": "San Francisco voters recalled all three board members, exceeding the prediction of at least two.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000545264906", "episodeTitle": "E59: Twitter's content warning algo, equity audits, politicians trading stocks, Fed's next move, mRNA & more", "publishedAt": "2021-12-17", "timestamp": "1:18:46", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000545264906", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "San Francisco final election results", "url": "https://sfelections.org/results/20220215w/detail.html" } ] }, { "id": "2020-alphafold-replication", "year": 2020, "speaker": "David Friedberg", "category": "Science and technology", "claim": "Another team will replicate AlphaFold within 24 months.", "test": "Look for a documented independent implementation trained to reproduce AlphaFold2 performance by December 4, 2022.", "deadline": "2022-12-04", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2022-11-22", "outcome": "The OpenFold team published a trainable reproduction of AlphaFold2 in November 2022 and reported matching the original model's performance.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000501304741", "episodeTitle": "E14: Salesforce acquires Slack, DeepMind's AlphaFold breakthrough, Trust Fund Socialists & more", "publishedAt": "2020-12-04", "timestamp": "40:45", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000501304741", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "OpenFold project and reproduction", "url": "https://github.com/aqlaboratory/openfold" } ] }, { "id": "2020-trump-reelection", "year": 2020, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "Politics", "claim": "Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election.", "test": "Use the certified winner of the 2020 presidential election.", "deadline": "2020-11-03", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2020-11-03", "outcome": "Joe Biden won the 2020 presidential election with 306 electoral votes to Trump's 232.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "regular", "source": { "episodeId": "1000490588896", "episodeTitle": "E7: California's collapse, how SPACs are opening the markets for growth stocks & more", "publishedAt": "2020-09-09", "timestamp": "1:07:56", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000490588896", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Official FEC 2020 results", "url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2020presgeresults.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "2026-two-mega-ipos", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Markets", "claim": "At least two of SpaceX, Anduril, Stripe, Anthropic, and OpenAI will file to go public in 2026.", "test": "Count public or confirmed confidential IPO filings by the five named companies before December 31, 2026.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "One of the required two is confirmed. SpaceX filed and completed its IPO in June 2026. The year is not over.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744561004", "episodeTitle": "All-In's 2026 Predictions", "publishedAt": "2026-01-10", "timestamp": "1:20:00", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744561004", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "SpaceX IPO announcement", "url": "https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp--Announces-Pricing-of-Initial-Public-Offering/default.aspx" } ] }, { "id": "2026-us-gdp-five", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "Economy", "claim": "Real US GDP growth will reach approximately 5% in 2026.", "test": "Use the Bureau of Economic Analysis full-year real GDP growth estimate for 2026, allowing normal rounding around 5%.", "deadline": "2027-01-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open, but off pace. BEA reported 2.1% annualized growth in Q1 and 1.5% in Q2.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744561004", "episodeTitle": "All-In's 2026 Predictions", "publishedAt": "2026-01-10", "timestamp": "15:03", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744561004", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "BEA GDP release", "url": "https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product" } ] }, { "id": "2026-iran-democratic-transition", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "category": "World affairs", "claim": "Iran's ruling system will fall and Iran will become an independent democratic state during 2026.", "test": "Iran has a nationally recognized democratic government and the Ayatollah-led system is no longer in power by December 31, 2026.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "The deadline has not arrived. Keep this open through the end of 2026.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744561004", "episodeTitle": "All-In's 2026 Predictions", "publishedAt": "2026-01-10", "timestamp": "56:49", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744561004", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-ai-knowledge-worker-jobs", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "AI and work", "claim": "AI will increase aggregate demand for knowledge workers and produce job gains rather than net job losses.", "test": "Compare employment in clearly defined knowledge-work occupations at the start and end of 2026, while separating aggregate employment from individual occupations.", "deadline": "2027-02-28", "status": "pending", "resolvedAt": null, "outcome": "Still open. A final score needs full-year occupational employment data, not anecdotes about individual companies.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744561004", "episodeTitle": "All-In's 2026 Predictions", "publishedAt": "2026-01-10", "timestamp": "58:26", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744561004", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [] }, { "id": "2026-june-rate-cuts", "year": 2026, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "Economy", "claim": "The Federal Reserve will cut rates by 75 to 100 basis points by June 2026.", "test": "Compare the federal funds target range in January 2026 with the range after the June 2026 meeting.", "deadline": "2026-06-30", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2026-06-17", "outcome": "The target range was 3.5% to 3.75% in January and remained 3.5% to 3.75% after the June meeting. The predicted cuts did not occur.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744561004", "episodeTitle": "All-In's 2026 Predictions", "publishedAt": "2026-01-10", "timestamp": "14:18", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744561004", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "January 2026 FOMC minutes", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcminutes20260128.pdf" }, { "label": "June 2026 FOMC minutes", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260617.htm" } ] }, { "id": "2026-no-spacex-ipo", "year": 2026, "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "category": "Markets", "claim": "SpaceX will not complete an IPO and will instead use a reverse merger.", "test": "Check whether SpaceX completes a conventional IPO during 2026.", "deadline": "2026-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2026-06-12", "outcome": "SpaceX priced a conventional initial public offering after its registration statement became effective on June 11, 2026.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000744561004", "episodeTitle": "All-In's 2026 Predictions", "publishedAt": "2026-01-10", "timestamp": "1:00:56", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000744561004", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "SpaceX IPO announcement", "url": "https://ir.spacex.com/updates/releases-details/2026/Space-Exploration-Technologies-Corp--Announces-Pricing-of-Initial-Public-Offering/default.aspx" } ] }, { "id": "2025-openai-peak-valuation", "year": 2025, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and markets", "claim": "OpenAI's $157 billion valuation will be its peak valuation.", "test": "Check whether a priced primary or secondary transaction values OpenAI above $157 billion before December 31, 2025.", "deadline": "2025-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2025-10-02", "outcome": "A secondary share sale valued OpenAI at $500 billion in October 2025, more than three times the proposed ceiling.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000682614648", "episodeTitle": "2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker", "publishedAt": "2025-01-04", "timestamp": "43:52", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000682614648", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "OpenAI structure and ownership", "url": "https://openai.com/index/next-chapter-of-microsoft-openai-partnership/" }, { "label": "AP valuation report", "url": "https://apnews.com/article/53dffc56355460a232439c76d1ccf22b" } ] }, { "id": "2025-auto-mega-mergers", "year": 2025, "speaker": "Chamath Palihapitiya", "category": "Business", "claim": "Traditional automakers will enter a wave of mega-mergers during 2025.", "test": "Look for multiple announced mergers among major global automakers before December 31, 2025.", "deadline": "2025-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2025-12-31", "outcome": "The anticipated wave did not materialize. Honda and Nissan terminated the integration agreement cited as the leading signal in February 2025.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000682614648", "episodeTitle": "2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker", "publishedAt": "2025-01-04", "timestamp": "47:04", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000682614648", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Honda and Nissan terminate MOU", "url": "https://global.honda/en/newsroom/news/2025/c250213aeng.html" } ] }, { "id": "2025-china-tech-outperformance", "year": 2025, "speaker": "David Friedberg", "category": "Markets", "claim": "Chinese technology stocks and ETFs will be a leading asset trade in 2025.", "test": "Use a named China technology ETF as a transparent proxy and compare its calendar-year return with broad US equities.", "deadline": "2025-12-31", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2025-12-31", "outcome": "The iShares MSCI China Tech UCITS ETF returned 35.5% in 2025, materially ahead of the broad US equity benchmark discussed on the show.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000682614648", "episodeTitle": "2025 Predictions with bestie Gavin Baker", "publishedAt": "2025-01-04", "timestamp": "1:17:39", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000682614648", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "iShares calendar-year performance", "url": "https://www.ishares.com/ch/individual/en/products/320429/" } ] }, { "id": "2024-dark-horse-president", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Politics", "claim": "A dark-horse presidential candidate will beat both Trump and Biden in the 2024 election.", "test": "Check the certified winner of the 2024 presidential election.", "deadline": "2024-11-05", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2024-11-05", "outcome": "Donald Trump won the election. No dark-horse or independent candidate won.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "9:26", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Official FEC results", "url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "2024-third-party-breakout", "year": 2024, "speaker": "David Friedberg", "category": "Politics", "claim": "An independent or third-party candidacy will meaningfully challenge the two-party split in 2024.", "test": "Use an electoral vote or at least 5% of the national popular vote as the minimum concrete proxy for a national breakout.", "deadline": "2024-11-05", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2024-11-05", "outcome": "No independent won an electoral vote. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 0.49% of the national popular vote.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "7:59", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Official FEC results", "url": "https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2024presgeresults.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "2024-btfp-extension", "year": 2024, "speaker": "David Sacks", "category": "Economy", "claim": "The Federal Reserve will extend or replace the Bank Term Funding Program to preserve regional-bank liquidity.", "test": "Check whether the BTFP continues making new loans after March 11, 2024 or is replaced by a new equivalent emergency program during 2024.", "deadline": "2024-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2024-12-31", "outcome": "The BTFP stopped extending new loans on schedule on March 11, 2024. Existing discount-window access continued, but no equivalent replacement program was launched.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "38:26", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Federal Reserve BTFP history", "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/financial-stability/bank-term-funding-program.htm" } ] }, { "id": "2024-tiktok-ipo", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "Business", "claim": "ByteDance or a spun-out TikTok will go public during 2024.", "test": "Check whether ByteDance or TikTok completes an IPO by December 31, 2024.", "deadline": "2024-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2024-12-31", "outcome": "Neither company completed an IPO. ByteDance instead used a private share buyback and had no IPO plan in sight late in 2024.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "39:43", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Reuters report on ByteDance's private buyback", "url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/tiktok-parent-bytedances-valuation-hits-300-billion-amid-us-ban-uncertainty-wsj-reports-3726844" } ] }, { "id": "2024-data-owner-licensing", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and media", "claim": "Owners of valuable training data will become business winners as AI companies pay recurring licensing fees.", "test": "Look for multiple commercial content or data-licensing agreements with major AI companies during 2024.", "deadline": "2024-12-31", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2024-08-20", "outcome": "OpenAI announced multi-year or strategic content partnerships with News Corp, the Financial Times, Vox Media, and Condé Nast. Reddit also reported new data-licensing agreements.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "24:46", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "OpenAI and News Corp partnership", "url": "https://openai.com/index/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership/" }, { "label": "Reddit Q1 shareholder letter", "url": "https://investor.redditinc.com/files/doc_financials/2024/q1/Q1-24-RDDT-Letter-to-Shareholders-vF-1.pdf" } ] }, { "id": "2024-rights-holder-deals", "year": 2024, "speaker": "David Friedberg", "category": "AI and media", "claim": "Rights holders will sign several blockbuster licensing deals for generative AI during 2024.", "test": "Look for several material licensing partnerships between major rights holders and generative AI companies during 2024.", "deadline": "2024-12-31", "status": "correct", "resolvedAt": "2024-08-20", "outcome": "Multiple major publishers announced AI content partnerships during the year, including News Corp, the Financial Times, Vox Media, and Condé Nast.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "40:14", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "OpenAI publisher partnerships", "url": "https://openai.com/index/conde-nast/" }, { "label": "Financial Times licensing agreement", "url": "https://openai.com/index/content-partnership-with-financial-times/" } ] }, { "id": "2024-nyt-settlement", "year": 2024, "speaker": "Jason Calacanis", "category": "AI and media", "claim": "OpenAI will pay The New York Times a nine-figure settlement plus an ongoing licensing fee.", "test": "Check for an announced settlement and license by December 31, 2024.", "deadline": "2024-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2024-12-31", "outcome": "No settlement or license was announced in 2024. The copyright case continued through discovery and remained active in 2026.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "26:38", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "Active federal court docket", "url": "https://www.pacermonitor.com/public/case/51820670/The_New_York_Times_Company_v_MICROSOFT_CORPORATION_et_al" } ] }, { "id": "2024-peak-sports-valuations", "year": 2024, "speaker": "David Friedberg", "category": "Markets", "claim": "Professional sports franchise valuations will peak in 2024.", "test": "Check whether major franchise transaction values stop setting records after 2024.", "deadline": "2025-12-31", "status": "wrong", "resolvedAt": "2025-10-30", "outcome": "The NBA approved a Lakers control sale in 2025 at a reported $10 billion valuation, exceeding prior US professional-sports transaction records.", "callType": "forecast", "sourceKind": "annual", "source": { "episodeId": "1000640721295", "episodeTitle": "E160: 2024 Predictions! Markets, tech, politics, and more", "publishedAt": "2024-01-06", "timestamp": "34:43", "url": "https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/all-in-with-chamath-jason-sacks-friedberg/id1502871393?i=1000640721295", "attribution": "Spoken Archive speaker label, reconciled to the normalized transcript turn" }, "outcomeSources": [ { "label": "NBA approval of Lakers sale", "url": "https://www.nba.com/news/nba-approves-sale-majority-interest-lakers-mark-walter" } ] } ], "provenance": { "transcriptSource": "Spoken Archive normalized speaker-labeled transcripts", "sourceEpisodes": 29, "sourceTurnsReconciled": 53, "outcomePolicy": "Every included call has a stated horizon and a concrete finish line. Resolved calls require a dated outcome and at least one linked external source." } }